A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has something to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
